ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that the Dollar has held post-Fed gains, keeping USD/JPY elevated in intervention territory.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar has extended gains after a record hawkish shift in the Fed’s dot plot, even as Oil remains sharply lower over the past month.

DBS Group Research’s Chang Wei Liang points out that an interim US–Iran agreement has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, allowing traffic to resume while talks continue.

According to UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, EUR/USD extended its recent decline as the US Dollar index hit a one-year high following the Fed’s hawkish hold.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends losses for the third consecutive day on Friday, hitting one-week lows at $4,121, on track to close a three-week losing streak.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that USD/SGD closed at 1.2900, with the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) estimated at 1.75% above its mid-point.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that foreign investors sharply increased purchases of long-term US securities in April, with inflows over the past year more than offsetting the US trade deficit.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that the US Dollar extended gains after the Fed’s hawkish hold, pushing USD/JPY sharply higher to 161.37. The pair is now trading near levels that previously triggered Japanese authorities’ intervention.

DBS Group Research strategist Chang Wei Liang notes that USD/JPY has broken above 161, returning to levels that previously triggered official action.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that GBP/USD fell sharply after the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75%, before trimming losses to trade near 1.3236. The BOE decision saw a 7–2 vote, with two members preferring a hike to 4.00%.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that Oil prices stabilized after comments from US Vice President JD Vance confirmed tankers carrying over 12 million barrels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent closed at $79.85 and WTI at $76.60.

Citing a senior US official on Friday, Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire at 4 p.m. local time on Friday.

ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that Andy Burnham’s by-election win paves his way to become UK Prime Minister, with betting markets expecting a transition by late summer. The absence of a political risk premium in Pound assets suggests investors see limited fiscal disruption.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $64.85 on Friday at the time of writing, down 1.31% on the day. The white metal remains under pressure for a third consecutive day as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy and developments in the Middle East.

USD/CAD trades on the front foot on Friday despite a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD), as weaker-than-expected Canadian Retail Sales data weighs on the Canadian Dollar (CAD). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4170, its highest level since April 2025.

Nordea analysts expect the Dollar to stay supported in coming months as the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish stance and US data remain firm. They argue that US growth and inflation dynamics justify higher yields versus peers, limiting Dollar downside.

Deutsche Bank’s Galina Pozdnyakova, Jim Reid and Luke Templeman highlight that next week’s main macro focus will be global flash PMIs and several key inflation releases.

Nordea expects USD/JPY to remain high as wide US–Japan yield differentials persist and the Bank of Japan stays very accommodative. While some gradual BoJ normalization is anticipated, it is seen as too modest to materially weaken the Japanese Yen near term.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure on Friday as traders assess the latest news about the US-Iran peace deal and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish monetary policy announcement. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,150 after hitting a one-week low of $4,121 earlier in the day.

Nordea’s research suggests EUR/USD upside is constrained in coming months by interest rate differentials and relative growth. The European Central Bank is seen closer to the end of its hiking cycle than the Federal Reserve, while Eurozone data remain softer than US figures.