Nordea economists Kjetil Olsen and Sara Midtgaard argue that much higher Norwegian inflation and an energy price shock will force Norges Bank to tighten further.

Canada’s inflation cooled in February, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 1.8% from a year earlier, a touch below market expectations and easing from the 2.3% increase recorded in January. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.5%.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $79.70 on Monday at the time of writing, down 1.12% on the day. The white metal is under pressure as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of this week’s monetary policy announcements from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that the Swiss Franc has underperformed typical safe-haven expectations since the Middle East conflict began, partly due to the SNB’s intervention warnings.

TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali notes persistent Chinese demand has kept the Shanghai arbitrage window open, supporting international Silver buying. Despite strong physical flows and CME warehouse draws, visible stocks remain ample relative to dealer shorts.

ING’s Warren Patterson highlights that Oil markets are repricing for a longer disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with around 8m b/d of crude already shut in.

Societe Generale economists note Euro area industrial production fell sharply in January despite improving PMIs and German orders.

TD Securities’ Daniel Ghali warns Copper will increasingly need to draw from exchange warehouses as global deficits bite.

The United States (US) Industrial Production rose 0.2% MoM in February versus the 0.7% advance from January. At the same time, Capacity Utilization stood at 76.3%, matching the revised figure from January, according to a Federal Reserve (Fed) report.

MUFG analysts maintain a short EUR/USD stance, arguing that the Euro faces a larger negative terms-of-trade shock from higher Oil and natural gas prices.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage underlines a notable break in traditional correlations between the Dollar, Oil and equities as investors navigate the Iran conflict and central bank meetings.

USD/CAD trades on the back foot on Monday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws support from a softer US Dollar (USD), while traders show a muted reaction to the latest Canadian inflation data as attention remains firmly focused on heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing US-Iran war.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley argues that while the Swiss Franc meets many safe-haven criteria, its strength remains problematic for the SNB given very low inflation and a zero policy rate.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Senior Economist Claire Fan notes that Canadian headline inflation slowed to 1.8% in February, but base effects from last year’s GST/HST holiday and the removal of the consumer carbon tax distort comparisons.

ING’s Warren Patterson revises the base case for global Energy markets, abandoning an earlier assumption of a quick two-week disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme say Canada’s latest CPI print shows inflation under control before the recent rise in Oil prices. Headline and core measures are both below 2.0%, with shelter inflation moderating.

TD Securities’ Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay analyzes how disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb are reshaping Saudi crude export risks and bypass capacity, with implications for Oil supply tightness.

Nordea economists Kjetil Olsen and Sara Midtgaard expect the Sweden's central bank, Riksbank to leave its policy rate at 1.75% on 19 March and through 2026, as inflation forecasts are only modestly revised and uncertainty over energy prices is high.

MUFG highlights that United Kingdom (UK) rate expectations have flipped from cuts to a possible hike as the energy shock lifts inflation risks, supporting recent Pound Sterling (GBP) outperformance versus European peers.

AUD/USD rises on Monday, trading around 0.7060 at the time of writing, up 1.16% on the day. The pair rebounds strongly after two days of losses, supported by renewed optimism around the Australian Dollar (AUD) and expectations of further monetary tightening in Australia.