OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Brent Oil has dropped sharply on optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after a US–Iran deal, but warn markets may be underpricing security risks.

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner argues that despite market expectations for further Fed tightening, falling Oil and gasoline prices should lower U.S. inflation and ease pressure for hikes.

Gold (XAU/USD) holds above the $4,000 mark on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) softens following the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which broadly met forecasts and reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.

Geoff Yu at BNY identifies Indonesia as one of the clearest cross-asset signals in Emerging Markets (EM) APAC (Asia-Pacific).

HSBC strategists describe Malaysia as relatively resilient to elevated Oil prices thanks to its status as a net energy exporter and beneficiary of the AI (Artificial intelligence) hardware cycle.

Lee Hardman at MUFG highlights that the Japanese Yen remains near year-to-date lows versus the US Dollar, with intervention risks limiting further weakness.

Bart Melek at TD Securities argues that Strait of Hormuz disruptions have driven Oil inventories to historically low levels, leaving Brent oversold and vulnerable to a sharp short-covering rebound.

Commerzbank strategists note that despite lower Oil and gas prices, European Central Bank (ECB) officials still signal at least one more rate increase, which the bank forecasts for September.

USD/JPY edges lower on Friday and trades around 161.60 at the time of writing after once again failing to sustain a move above the 162.00 mark. The pair is facing profit-taking as investors remain cautious over the risk of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the domestic currency.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that South Korean equities have delivered exceptional returns in 2026 while institutional investors remain net sellers, particularly from the Americas.

GBP/JPY trades in a narrow range on Friday as traders weigh the latest UK political developments against lingering intervention risks from Japanese authorities, with USD/JPY holding above the 161.00 level.

Societe Generale economists Reo Sakida and Jin Kenzaki analyze June Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), noting that overall inflation dynamics in Japan changed little from May despite a modest upside surprise in headline and core readings.

UOB’s Lee Sue Ann highlights that Australia’s unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% in May with a 40.3k employment gain, mainly in part-time jobs, and participation rising to 66.7%.

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding note that China’s fiscal spending has underperformed so far in 2026, weighing on growth despite stronger-than-expected Q1 data.

AUD/USD is recovering near 0.6900 on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) weakens with investors taking profits ahead of the end of the semester after a two-week rally in the Greenback. The move helped the Australian Dollar (AUD) recover some intraday ground, although the full picture remains negative.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains 0.20% against the Greenback on Friday as the latter recoils after hitting year-to-date (YTD) highs, with money markets pricing in a less hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed), despite policymakers stating they will focus on inflation.

EUR/USD trades on the front foot on Friday but remains on track for a second straight weekly loss as the fragile situation in the Middle East and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook keep the US Dollar's (USD) downside limited.

US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday that Iran violated the ceasefire after launching drones at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, with one of them hitting the upper deck of a large cargo-carrying ship.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil falls 3.25% on Friday and trades around $69.05 at the time of writing, after hitting its lowest level since late February at $68.48 earlier in the day.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said during a panel discussion at the Aspen Ideas Festival 2026 in Aspen, Colorado, that he remains concerned about inflation in the service sector, while also noting some signs of improvement in the labor market.