TD Securities analysts argue that ongoing Iran‑related tensions and an Oil price spike are restoring the US Dollar’s safe‑haven behavior.

EUR/JPY trades around 183.20 on Monday, up 0.35% on the day at the time of writing, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR).

HSBC Asset Management discusses how recent geopolitical tensions have driven Oil higher and raised market volatility.

GBP/JPY extends gains on Monday, rising for a third consecutive day as traders reassess the monetary policy outlook for the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid soaring Oil prices driven by the escalating US-Iran war, which is reviving global inflation concerns.

MUFG strategists Derek Halpenny, Lee Hardman and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart note that the Japanese Yen has not yet benefited from the latest volatility spike, with the BoJ’s trade‑weighted JPY index near year‑to‑date lows.

BNP Paribas Economic Research Team projects Euro appreciation versus the Dollar, supported by structural changes in US fiscal policy and an expected strengthening of growth in Europe.

TD Securities strategists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir argue that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold near term as the Iran conflict and mixed US labor data keep uncertainty elevated.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight that the Euro is weaker versus the Dollar despite a more supportive rate outlook as markets focus on geopolitical risks.

AUD/USD advances on Monday, trading around 0.7040 at the time of writing, up 0.24% on the day. The pair benefits from renewed demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) as stronger-than-expected economic data from China provides support to currencies closely linked to Chinese growth.

The British Pound (GBP) losses some ground versus the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as risk aversion keeps the Greenback bid, sponsored by the escalation of the Iran conflict.

EUR/USD regains ground on Monday after opening the week with a bearish gap. The recovery comes as the US Dollar (USD) gives up earlier gains, allowing the Euro (EUR) to rebound from its lowest level in more than three months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) opened sharply lower on Monday as a weekend escalation in the US-Iran conflict sent crude Oil prices surging past $100 per barrel.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Alexandra Ducharme and Jocelyn Paquet expect Canada’s February Labour Force Survey to show a 10K employment gain after January’s decline, but projects the unemployment rate rising to 6.7% as participation ticks up to 65.2%.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil gained about 5% on Monday, but the headline figure disguised a wild session.

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating losses on Monday after coming under heavy selling pressure at the start of the week as markets digest shifting macro and geopolitical drivers.

USD/JPY trades around 158.10 on Monday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day, as markets react to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and sharp moves in the energy market.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky argues that Central and Eastern European markets remain highly exposed to the US–Iran conflict and rising Oil prices. While local data from Hungary, Turkey and Poland are due, he expects geopolitics to dominate.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan assesses how higher Oil prices and a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could affect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas policy.

Gold (XAU/USD) trims some of its earlier losses on Monday, yet it remains below its opening price by over 1.50% as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices up more than 30%, to near to $113 a barrel. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $5,090.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles to build on gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as a sharp pullback in Oil prices weighs on the commodity-linked Loonie, even as the Greenback trades under pressure.