Insights & Updates

USD/CAD trades around 1.4095 on Friday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.06% as the US Dollar (USD) retains a slight advantage following the release of solid US economic data, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains pressured by weak domestic indicators and softer Oil prices.

EUR/USD pares earlier gains on Friday as the widening Middle East war and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep the US Dollar (USD) pinned near recent highs.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports that EUR/USD has recovered part of its recent slump but remains below 1.1400. A stronger-than-expected Eurozone July PMI and a hawkish hold from the ECB support the Euro, though higher Oil prices keep growth risks skewed lower.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that rising US and global bond yields, elevated geopolitical risks and higher energy prices are supporting the US Dollar.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Japanese Yen (JPY) is slightly firmer versus the US Dollar (USD) but still underperforming most G10 currencies. USD/JPY trades near levels last seen in 1986, with limited resistance overhead.

AUD/USD trades higher near the 0.6990 area on Friday, recovering from an earlier pullback as the US Dollar (USD) struggles to gain clear momentum following mixed United States (US) business-activity data.

TD Securities notes that the UK Composite PMI climbed back into expansion at 52.1 in July, led by Manufacturing strength and a Services PMI recovery to 51.8. Input cost inflation eased and business confidence hit its highest since February.

Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that Singapore’s June inflation data stayed benign, with modest upticks in headline and core CPI. MAS is expected to keep policy unchanged in July but retain a tightening bias.

Pakistan and Iran are exploring a possible path toward renewed negotiations with the United States (US) as part of a new diplomatic initiative supported by China, Reuters reported, citing several sources familiar with the discussions.

USD/JPY edges lower on Friday, trading around 163.70, down 0.09% on the day at the time of writing, after hitting a fresh near 40-year high on Thursday.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is slightly higher versus the US Dollar (USD) but lagging most G10 peers.

USD/CHF trades flat on Friday as a pullback in Oil prices weighs modestly on the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. However, the Middle East war and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep an underlying floor under the Greenback.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that Brent has retreated slightly below $100 but remains supported by renewed Middle East tensions, Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and Kazakhstan’s export halt. Institutional flows show high-conviction re-accumulation of energy exposure from a still-depleted base.

The Pound Sterling advances by some 0.20% on Friday as Oil prices tumble, weighing on the US Dollar, while the US-Iran conflict signals a further escalation, which market participants ignored. Despite registering daily gains, the GBP/USD is poised to finish the week with losses of nearly 0.70%.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley describes EUR/USD as wary after the July European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Foley notes that the Euro (EUR) failed to gain support despite a hawkish ECB tone, while the Dollar benefits from safe haven demand and Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret say broad US Dollar (USD) gains are moderating as United States (US) yields retreat and risk appetite improves after a tech-led selloff.

Commerzbank’s Marco Stoeckle argues that the AI trade is at a crossroads, with ‘Mag 7’ euphoria fading and hyperscalers facing cash flow and leverage concerns. In contrast, semiconductor and memory stocks, tracked by SOX and KOSPI, saw hyperbolic gains before sharp drawdowns.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan expects MAS to keep policy unchanged at the July meeting while maintaining a tightening bias, distinguishing between energy-driven and domestically generated inflation. Strong Singapore growth and a positive output gap justify tight settings.

The index that spent this week absorbing a war premium trades near 52,000 on Friday, around 325 points to the good side, on the strength of a wire report that its own three sources undercut in the same breath.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges higher on Friday as a pullback in Oil prices pushes US Treasury yields lower, while the US Dollar (USD) fluctuates near recent highs. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $58.60, up 2.40% on the day.