OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Brent’s move above USD100/bbl and rising Hormuz disruption risk raise the odds of a durable energy shock, with markets bracing for stagflation and a stronger Dollar.

The Euro (EUR) trims part of its earlier losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as traders digest the latest US economic data. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1472 after touching an intraday low near 1.1433, its weakest level since August 2025.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team has lowered its short-term EUR/USD projections, citing prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and higher Oil and gas prices.

Standard Chartered’s Chong Hoon Park and Nicholas Chia expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy rate at 0.75% on 19 March, with a cautious stance due to uneven Japanese growth and higher Oil prices.

Commerzbank’s commodity team, including Barbara Lambrecht and colleagues, highlights that the Iran war has triggered the largest oil supply outages ever, with the IEA estimating losses of at least 8 million barrels per day.

American consumer confidence deflated in early March, as households grew more pessimistic about current conditions and the broader economic outlook, according to preliminary data from the University of Michigan.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Pound is underperforming against the Dollar, hurt by risk sentiment and a surprise contraction in UK industrial production.

The number of job openings in the US was little changed at 6.94 million in January, while for December it was revised upward to 6.55 million from the 6.54 million previously reported, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Friday.

TD Securities analysts expect the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to show relative resilience versus non-USD peers thanks to Oil links, lower beta to risk-off and cleaner positioning.

USD/CAD extends its advance on Friday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens across the board after Canada’s latest employment report surprised to the downside, while firm US Dollar (USD) demand amid the ongoing US-Iran war adds further pressure on the Loonie.

USD/JPY trades around 159.50 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. The pair remains close to recent highs, supported by the continued strength of the US Dollar (USD) and a still-wide interest rate differential between the United States (US) and Japan.

Nordea’s Torbjörn Isaksson reports that Swedish CPIF and CPIF ex energy were confirmed at low year-on-year levels, with seasonally adjusted core measures well below the 2% target. Despite a bounce in core services inflation, overall pressures remain subdued.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Canadian Dollar is sliding on weaker Canadian employment data and geopolitical concerns, even as US data also softens.

The GBP/USD pair is trading near the 1.3240 price region, falling for a fourth consecutive day, reaching lows it hasn’t touched since December 3, 2025. The downfall of the Great British Pound (GBP) is attributed to a firm US Dollar (USD) amid risk aversion.

Silver (XAG/USD) price extends its losses for the third straight day on Friday, down over 2.90%, as Oil prices recover even though US President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Russian Oil for 30 days, and the US Dollar trades near four-month highs.

BNY’s iFlow data show heightened risk aversion, with bond buying concentrated in G10 and Eurozone debt while EM sovereigns are sold. FX flows highlight outflows from INR and EUR against demand for CNY and ZAR.

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its losses on Friday and remains on course for a second weekly decline as surging Oil prices stemming from the ongoing US-Iran war fuel inflation concerns and trigger a hawkish repricing of global interest-rate expectations, weighing on the non-yielding metal.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $95.30 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged for the day, as markets balance supply relief measures with escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

ING’s Chris Turner explains that previously popular long South African Rand positions are being unwound as low inflation comes under pressure, volatility rises and precious metals lose momentum.

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee highlight that Asian currencies and rates are vulnerable as the Iran conflict threatens Oil supply via the Strait of Hormuz.