Insights & Updates

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its recovery on Friday as weaker-than-expected US payroll growth weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,356 after hitting $4,371, its highest level since June 17.

TD Securities strategists Ryan McKay and Bart Melek highlight that strong discretionary and Asian buying is supporting Gold, even as CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) positioning has plateaued.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme highlight robust Canadian labour data for July, with 75.1K jobs added, a lower unemployment rate and stronger private-sector hiring.

USD/CHF edges lower on Friday, erasing most of the previous day’s gains as the US Dollar (USD) weakens following a downside surprise in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8080, down 0.53% on the day.

ABN AMRO’s Chief Economist Nick Kounis highlights renewed US labour market weakness, with Nonfarm Payrolls falling and household employment data softening. He notes the unemployment rate declined as labour force participation dropped to multi-decade lows, signalling cyclical weakness.

TD Securities strategists note that the US Dollar (USD) weakened after the disappointing July Payrolls report, but see limited downside against G10 currencies unless softer US inflation further reduces Fed hike expectations.

Norman Liebke at Commerzbank has revised Gas and German power price forecasts higher, citing tighter European storage, increased reliance on LNG and structural constraints on Qatari exports. The phase-out of Russian Gas from 2027 adds upside risk.

The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows that households’ inflation expectations decreased slightly over the short-term horizon and remained unchanged at the medium and longer-term horizons. One-year inflation expectations eased from 3.7% in June to 3.6% in July

The AUD/USD pair surged to its highest in nearly two months past 0.7070 earlier on Friday, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The move owes nothing to Australia.

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Nathan Janzen reports that Canada’s labour market strengthened in July, with a 75k employment gain following robust increases in May and June and a decline in the unemployment rate to 6.4%.

NZD/USD trades around 0.5890 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.36% on the day.

The American labour market contracted in July and the Dow Jones Industrial Average answered with a gain of roughly 65 points, a tenth of a percent, trading near 54,000 into the afternoon.

Standard Chartered’s Aldian Taloputra notes Indonesia’s Q2 GDP grew 5.3% year-on-year, slowing from 5.6% but beating consensus. Stronger-than-expected H1 data leads the bank to raise its 2026 GDP forecast to 5.3%.

Gold (XAU/USD) skyrockets on Friday, gaining over 2.30% in the day and more than 7% in the week after US jobs data was mixed, with a softer Nonfarm Payrolls print while the Unemployment Rate remained steady.

EUR/USD edges higher on Friday, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) as traders scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets following a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1562, hovering near a seven-week high.

Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research notes that KRW is currently the best performing Asian currency, supported by strong semiconductor demand and reported FX intervention coordination between Korea, the US and Japan.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) capitalizes on a weaker US jobs report and soars versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as risk appetite improves and the Greenback gets battered on speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might not raise rates in 2026.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD has firmed modestly, with the pair closing at 1.2835 after testing both 1.2800 and 1.2840. Short-term momentum now favors a mild upside, though strong resistance at 1.2850 is expected to cap gains.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) edges higher by some 0.29% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, yet it remains trading sideways, unable to decisively crack 1.3500 after reaching a three-week peak of 1.3509, and has retreated to the 1.3490 area.

EUR/JPY trades on the back foot on Friday, easing away even as the Euro (EUR) posts solid gains against the US Dollar (USD). The Japanese currency surged suddenly near the start of the American session after a surprisingly weak United States (US) employment report.