Insights & Updates

Gold (XAU/USD) is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, extending an impressive rally that has lifted the precious metal by around 13% so far this month. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,603, its highest level since May 15.

The Euro (EUR) is falling against the British Pound (GBP). EUR/GBP held the mid-0.8500s on Friday, hovering just below the 0.8570 area, even after a strong round of August flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) on both sides of the cross.

Nomura’s European Economics team highlights that UK composite output PMI rose to 52.5 in August, with services offsetting weaker manufacturing. GfK consumer confidence improved to its highest level in two years, supporting activity.

Commerzbank’s Senior Economist Dr. Vincent Stamer notes that Euro area business sentiment has stabilized at a moderate level, with the composite PMI edging up from 52.0 to 52.1 in August, slightly above consensus.

AUD/USD edges higher on Friday, climbing to its highest level since June 3 as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms all its major peers.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) loses some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, though it remains poised to end the week with gains of over 0.60%, even as UK Retail Sales disappointed investors and US business activity improved in August.

Rabobank's Bas van Geffen, analyses how forthcoming structural Longer-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs) could complement the European Central Bank's (ECB) standard refinancing operations as excess liquidity declines.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades roughly 430 points higher at just above 53,200, taking back the larger part of a Thursday decline that ran close to 690 points.

EUR/JPY trades around 185.70 on Friday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gains some support from firmer Japanese inflation data, but the move is offset by resilience in the Euro (EUR) following better-than-expected activity indicators in the Eurozone.

TD Securities’ Robert Both expects the Bank of Canada to remain cautious even if a tariff agreement is reached. The Bank wants more data on how lower tariffs affect exports and output, with key trade figures not available until November.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that “It would be better to end the war today, when we have power and dignity, and with the whole world acknowledging our victory,” according to a Bloomberg report on Friday.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends its rally against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, trading near 0.6000 and close to its highest level since end-May.

Deutsche Bank Research, led by Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan, highlights the United Kingdom (UK) economy’s surprising resilience to the Iran-related energy shock in 2026. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.6% q-o-q in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2, making the UK the fastest-growing G7 economy.

USD/CHF holds firm on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) trims its intraday losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8013 after slipping to 0.7949 on the previous day, its lowest level since June 17.

The Dollar Index trades just beneath 99.00 and unchanged on the session, with the entire day fitting inside 35 pips between the 98.50 area and a high that stopped a shade short of the handle.

Commerzbank economists Christoph Balz and Ralph Solveen expect the Ifo Business Climate Index to slip from 86.6 to 86.0 in August as renewed Iran war concerns and higher energy prices weigh on expectations.

EUR/USD heads for a fourth consecutive weekly gain on Friday, although it has erased its earlier intraday advance. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1682 after briefly rising above 1.1700, its highest level since May 14.

Gold price hits a three-month high and is poised to end the week with gains of over 5.6%, even though business activity in the services sector in the US was solid. Recent developments in the Middle East and a softer US Dollar underpin the yellow metal, which has surpassed the $4,600 threshold.

Silver (XAG/USD) prices rally for the third straight day on Friday, up more than 2% and, for the week, gains over 7.40%, as a firm US Dollar (USD) is not an excuse for precious metals buyers, who are choosing flight-to-quality over haven demand due to the difficult US fiscal stance.

DBS economists Taimur Baig and Radhika Rao project Singapore’s headline and core inflation will rise in July to 2.4% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively, driven by higher energy and food costs.