Insights & Updates

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said that they must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the objective, adding that they have work to do otherwise, while delivering opening remarks at the Kansas City Fed's 2026 Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

According to the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision, Nonfarm employment for March 2026 was -79,000 (-0.1%), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday.

ING’s Peter Virovacz expects Hungary’s final 2Q26 GDP release to confirm a weaker-than-hoped quarter, with agriculture and construction dragging and services plus industry providing support. Investment is seen as a significant negative surprise on the demand side.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) strategists analyze escalating trade tensions between Canada and the United States (US) and their impact on both economies.

EUR/USD trades around 1.1645 on Friday, posting a modest 0.07% decline on the day as investors adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of a highly anticipated speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen and colleagues say German GDP has surprised on the upside, expanding around 0.35% per quarter over the last three quarters, driven mainly by stronger exports to EU partners.

Societe Generale’s Reo Sakida and Jin Kenzaki note that August Tokyo CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with renewed energy subsidies weighing on inflation and likely to drag on CPI through October.

ING’s Adam Antoniak expects Poland’s 2Q26 GDP flash estimate to be confirmed at 3.8% year-on-year, with fixed investment rebounding strongly thanks to EU and RRF-funded projects. Private consumption is seen slowing slightly as higher fuel prices and weaker wage growth weigh on purchasing power.

EUR/USD falls sharply toward 1.1595 on Friday at the time of writing, losing 0.48% on the day, as the US Dollar (USD) rallies following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) tumbles versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh put inflation as the priority at the Fed, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate hike next month. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3538, down 0.40%.

Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that Middle East tensions and constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping key energy supply routes at risk.

Gold (XAU/USD) prices extend losses to over 2.50% on Friday as market participants digest hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Rising US Treasury yields and overall US Dollar strength are the two drivers of the sudden weakness in precious metals.

Canada produced the strongest growth figure of the cycle and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is weaker for it.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) rallies on Friday, gaining 0.36% to trade around 99.50 at the time of writing, as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium prompt investors to sharply reassess the outlook for US interest rates.

Japan delivered the inflation and labour data the Bank of Japan needs to move next month and the Japanese Yen is weaker for a fifth consecutive session.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) chair used the largest speaking slot on the calendar to commit to nothing and the futures market repriced September anyway.

AUD/USD retreats 0.30% on Friday to trade around 0.7170 at the time of writing, correcting after reaching its highest level since mid-May at 0.7206 earlier in the day.

Silver (XAG/USD) price made a U-turn after reaching a two-month high of $71.12 on Friday, then dove below the $69.00 figure as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh leaned hawkish in his Jackson Hole speech, pushing US Treasury yields higher.

Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) President Austan Goolsbee commented in a CNBC interview at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday that he agreed with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about the details of the economy, adding that “inflation is the Fed’s main issue right now.”

Martin Kocher, Governor of the Austrian National Bank and a member of the European Central Bank (ECB), said in an interview with Bloomberg that Europe’s economy shows more momentum.